According to @KobeissiLetter, the US credit downgrade was announced just minutes before futures closed for the weekend, causing an immediate gap down in stock prices and a spike in yields. This sudden market reaction signals heightened risk sentiment, which historically drives volatility in the cryptocurrency market as investors seek alternative assets. Traders should closely monitor macroeconomic indicators and bond yields, as sustained higher yields could pressure both traditional and crypto markets in the near term (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, foreign investors have injected $1.2 billion into US Treasury funds over the past four weeks, marking the highest net inflow in six months, even after a significant 50-basis point spike in the 10-year note yield during the second week of April (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 16, 2025). This sustained foreign demand for US Treasuries indicates persistent risk-off sentiment, which could limit capital flows into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies in the short term. Crypto traders should monitor US bond inflows, as continued strength in Treasuries may pressure digital asset prices and lead to increased volatility correlated with global macro trends.

According to Edward Dowd on Twitter, there is a bullish outlook on long bonds, which may signal changing risk appetite in traditional finance. This is relevant for crypto traders as increased long bond demand often coincides with risk-off sentiment, potentially leading to short-term volatility in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Dowd's perspective suggests traders should monitor bond yields closely as a leading indicator for crypto market moves (source: Edward Dowd Twitter, May 15, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Treasury recorded a $258 billion budget surplus in April 2025, marking the largest surplus since 2021. This surplus was driven by total receipts of $850 billion, with individual tax payments rising by 16% to $460 billion, while government outlays were $592 billion (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 13, 2025). This stronger fiscal position could lead to reduced government borrowing, potentially lowering yields on US Treasury bonds. For crypto traders, lower bond yields may support risk-on assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as investors seek higher returns, signaling potential bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, U.S. bond yields are on the rise regardless of President Trump's tariff policy decisions—whether tariffs are raised, cut, or held steady, yields increase due to inflation, growth expectations, or Fed rate policy respectively (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 12, 2025). This persistent upward pressure on yields signals potential volatility for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as traders may rotate funds out of digital assets and into higher-yielding traditional markets. Crypto market participants should closely monitor U.S. bond market developments, as sustained yield increases can weigh on Bitcoin and altcoin prices amid shifting risk sentiment.

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), the 10-year US Treasury yields have started to climb after testing S2 support last month. This technical breakout is often seen as a bearish indicator for risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, as rising yields typically signal tightening financial conditions and reduced liquidity. Traders should closely monitor bond market movements as an early warning sign for potential downside in crypto markets, referencing Mihir's analysis and recent market trends (Source: @RhythmicAnalyst, Twitter, May 12, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, markets have fully priced in four 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025, signaling that traders expect the Fed to prioritize declining US economic output over concerns about a potential inflation rebound (source: The Kobeissi Letter Twitter, April 30, 2025). This expectation is likely to impact short-term and long-term bond yields, with traders positioning for lower yields and increased risk appetite in equities and cryptocurrencies. Market participants should monitor Fed policy statements and economic data closely, as any deviation from this pricing could trigger significant volatility.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, gold has shown only a minimal bounce and is now trending downwards, which is a strong indicator that risk-on assets may benefit in the near term (source: @CryptoMichNL on Twitter, April 30, 2025). Van de Poppe notes that significant news could emerge soon, potentially causing further downward movement in both gold and bond yields. For cryptocurrency traders, ETH is currently consolidating on lower timeframes, suggesting a likely breakout to the upside. These developments are important for traders focusing on momentum shifts between traditional safe havens and crypto markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US Treasury funds received a record $19 billion in net inflows last week, surpassing the previous high of $14 billion during the 2020 pandemic (source: @KobeissiLetter, April 26, 2025). The 4-week moving average now stands at $7 billion, the highest since March 2023. This surge in demand for US Treasuries signals increased investor preference for safe-haven assets, potentially putting downward pressure on bond yields. For crypto traders, this shift may indicate reduced risk appetite in traditional markets, which historically correlates with short-term volatility in Bitcoin and altcoins as capital temporarily flows out of risk assets (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), while economists focus on rising gold and bond yields as indicators of a potential recession, they overlook the robust recovery in Bitcoin and stock markets. This suggests that recession fears might be premature, presenting potential trading opportunities in these assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year Treasury Note yield has surged back above 4.40%, coinciding with a sharp decline in equity futures. This movement suggests a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets, impacting trading strategies. Traders should monitor bond yield trends closely as they signal changes in market risk appetite.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, a significant rally in the M2 Money Supply could lead Bitcoin to reach an all-time high (ATH) this quarter. If the correlation holds, this scenario would also suggest an increase in CNH/USD, a decrease in bond yields, a fall in gold prices, and a decline in the DXY index. These movements could present strategic trading opportunities for investors focusing on cryptocurrency and related financial markets.

According to Omkar Godbole, the Nikkei is poised to initiate another phase of global risk-off, as the 30-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) yield reaches its highest point since 2004. This shift indicates potential volatility in global markets, influencing investor decisions and trading strategies. The surge in JGB yields reflects changes in monetary policy and investor sentiment towards risk assets. Traders should closely monitor these developments for potential impacts on equity and bond markets.

According to Crypto Rover, the U.S. bond market is experiencing a significant rise, suggesting potential volatility in the financial markets. This development could have a direct impact on cryptocurrency trading as investors may shift their portfolios in response to changing risk dynamics. Traders should closely monitor bond yield movements, as these often correlate with shifts in cryptocurrency market trends.

According to Milk Road, the market did not explode because the momentum from the earlier 90-day tariff pause had already been priced in. This led to equities rallying, bond yields adjusting sharply, and cryptocurrencies pushing higher. The anticipation of these changes resulted in a preemptive market adjustment, leaving little room for further explosive growth. [source: Milk Road]

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have formed a Head & Shoulders pattern, with the yields breaking the neckline on March 18th. This technical pattern indicates potential further declines in yields. Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced slight corrections due to tariff-related volatility; however, there was no corresponding increase in bond yields. This decoupling suggests that traders might need to reassess their strategies in light of persistent yield weakness.

According to Cas Abbé, the DXY index is increasing following the recent FOMC meeting. This rise is attributed to increasing bond yields as market participants anticipate higher inflation driven by tariffs. Cas Abbé suggests that the market may be overestimating the impact of short-term rising yields while underestimating potential rate cuts and a slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT).

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), Japan's annual inflation rate decreased to 3.7% in February 2025, marking the first decline in four months from a previous high of 4.0%. This easing inflation could influence Japanese bond markets, potentially stabilizing the recent rise in 10-year yields which had increased due to prior inflationary pressures.

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), the decline in three-month bond yields may cause a shift of money market funds into stocks and cryptocurrencies. The attached chart indicates that yields are nearing critical support, suggesting a potential breakdown.

According to Omkar Godbole, the downturn in $NDX is negatively impacting $BTC. The current market conditions are not favorable, as lower bond yields are not expected to provide support due to anticipated lower growth and the unraveling of the U.S. exceptionalism narrative. This situation suggests a challenging environment for Bitcoin traders as they navigate these broader economic factors. Source: Twitter (@godbole17).